← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08-22
50.6%
Model
39.0%
Market
2.47
Odds
+11.6
Edge (pp)
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
Style Matchup
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
STRIKING
P83
Striking Initiative
P44
P77
Volume
P16
P90
Striking Efficiency
P51
P91
Range Sniper
P10
P77
Kickboxing
P10
P51
Clinch Striking
P58
P24
Defensive Striking
P10
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P67
Wrestling
P100
P71
Pressure Wrestling
P97
P67
Top Control
P98
P34
Submission
P91
P95
Anti-Wrestling
P91
P87
Grappling Defense
P71
P54
Scrambler
P96
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P91
Power
P4
P82
Finisher
P85
P43
Damage Resistance
P47
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P83
Fast Starter
P74
P83
Pace
P97
P59
Late Fighter
P9
GLOBAL
P92
Versatility
P84
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RodriguesHernandez
5.52Landed / min4.52
4.72Absorbed / min3.10
51%Accuracy61%
51%Defense51%
1.03KD / 150.00
0.39KD abs / 150.22
Grappling / Wrestling
RodriguesHernandez
1.93TD / 155.91
5.42TD att / 1512.26
36%TD accuracy48%
75%TD defense68%
2:48Control / 157:51
0.39Sub att / 151.64
Targets
RodriguesHernandez
Head74%|80%
Body21%|12%
Leg5%|7%
Position
RodriguesHernandez
Distance84%|50%
Clinch10%|12%
Ground6%|39%
Ranking evolution Rodrigues Hernandez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues rides a three-fight win streak and carries real finishing momentum, his most recent damage coming against the No. 20-ranked opponent. At 19-6 overall and 10-3 in the UFC, he's the taller man here by 8 cm, length that can shape the striking exchanges if he keeps the fight upright.
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez's danger lives on the mat, where his top control and submission threat both stand out. He adds a slight edge in distance management and in soaking up punishment, with his striking volume and ground control both trending upward lately. His last win came over the No. 9-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Early, Rodrigues's finishing surge and height carry the threat on the feet, where Hernandez's slim defensive and durability edge has to hold up. As the five rounds wear on, the fight tilts toward Hernandez's territory: if he closes distance and plants Rodrigues on the mat, his top pressure and submission threat become the central danger. Rodrigues's cleaner path is keeping it standing and forcing Hernandez to strike with him.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Rodrigues uses his 8 cm of height to keep Hernandez at range and open up his power.
- Grappling: how often Hernandez changes levels and whether he can hold top position once the fight hits the mat.
- Late rounds: with five rounds scheduled, whether Hernandez's ground pressure compounds as the fight stretches deep.