← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08-22
51.8%
Model
74.5%
Market
1.29
Odds
-22.7
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P58
Striking Initiative
P29
P26
Volume
P39
P47
Striking Efficiency
P15
P23
Range Sniper
P28
P52
Kickboxing
P28
P84
Clinch Striking
P6
P21
Defensive Striking
P12
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P77
Wrestling
P49
P74
Pressure Wrestling
P58
P69
Top Control
P78
P89
Submission
P44
P7
Anti-Wrestling
P80
P3
Grappling Defense
P27
P31
Scrambler
P62
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P38
Power
P64
P90
Finisher
P60
P42
Damage Resistance
P95
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P70
Fast Starter
P64
P82
Pace
P55
P2
Late Fighter
P55
GLOBAL
P31
Versatility
P10
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RidderDolidze
2.47Landed / min3.19
2.36Absorbed / min3.71
49%Accuracy42%
47%Defense48%
0.37KD / 150.33
0.18KD abs / 150.08
Grappling / Wrestling
RidderDolidze
2.56TD / 151.16
8.77TD att / 152.65
29%TD accuracy44%
40%TD defense32%
5:07Control / 153:54
0.55Sub att / 150.74
Targets
RidderDolidze
Head60%|63%
Body32%|15%
Leg8%|22%
Position
RidderDolidze
Distance76%|81%
Clinch15%|6%
Ground9%|13%
Ranking evolution Ridder Dolidze
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Reinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder brings a dangerous ground game, pairing real submission threat with control once the fight hits the mat, and his top pressure has been trending upward lately. He owns the quality wins here, having beaten the No. 7-ranked opponent, and carries a 5cm reach advantage.
Roman Dolidze
Roman Dolidze's most reliable asset in this matchup is his durability, having shown he can eat shots without folding recently. A UFC veteran at 9-5 with 15-5 across all organizations, his last loss came against the No. 34-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
De Ridder's push to drag this to the mat meets Dolidze's task of staying upright, and that collision decides the fight. If de Ridder ties him up and gets on top, his submission threat and control become the central danger, sharpened by his growing top game. Dolidze's chin keeps him in exchanges standing, where his job is to defend entries and force de Ridder to work at range across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether de Ridder can close the southpaw-orthodox distance and secure clean entries to the mat.
- On the ground: how quickly Dolidze works back to his feet once de Ridder establishes top position.
- Standing: whether Dolidze's durability lets him stay in pocket exchanges and keep the fight vertical.