← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Vitor Petrino vs Serghei Spivac
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08-22
53.8%
Model
59.0%
Market
1.63
Odds
-5.3
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P19
Striking Initiative
P37
P22
Volume
P20
P52
Striking Efficiency
P43
P47
Range Sniper
P11
P56
Kickboxing
P8
P12
Clinch Striking
P5
P26
Defensive Striking
P17
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P86
Wrestling
P97
P67
Pressure Wrestling
P74
P86
Top Control
P84
P45
Submission
P75
P98
Anti-Wrestling
P82
P95
Grappling Defense
P67
P94
Scrambler
P84
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P81
Power
P7
P64
Finisher
P82
P35
Damage Resistance
P46
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P75
Fast Starter
P68
P71
Pace
P75
P27
Late Fighter
P76
GLOBAL
P84
Versatility
P79
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PetrinoSpivac
3.09Landed / min3.57
2.76Absorbed / min4.23
49%Accuracy48%
51%Defense52%
0.47KD / 150.00
0.32KD abs / 150.24
Grappling / Wrestling
PetrinoSpivac
2.84TD / 153.82
6.15TD att / 156.45
46%TD accuracy59%
81%TD defense64%
4:52Control / 154:56
0.79Sub att / 150.48
Targets
PetrinoSpivac
Head67%|94%
Body20%|4%
Leg13%|2%
Position
PetrinoSpivac
Distance82%|61%
Clinch4%|4%
Ground14%|35%
Ranking evolution Petrino Spivac
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Vitor Petrino
Petrino rides a three-fight winning streak and carries real pop on his recent work, with knockout power and finishing output both trending in his favor. His takedown defense has held up to keep exchanges standing, and his striking volume has been climbing. His defensive sharpness has also been improving lately.
Serghei Spivac
Spivac is the more seasoned heavyweight at 18-6 overall and 9-6 in the UFC, with his most recent win coming against the No. 17-ranked opponent. His main route is getting the fight to the mat, and his gas tank over the distance gives him something to lean on as rounds pile up.
Matchup Read
Spivac's push to get the fight down meets Petrino's takedown defense, and that collision likely decides things. If Petrino keeps it standing, his power and rising volume put Spivac in danger in the striking exchanges. If Spivac drags it to the mat, he shifts the fight into his preferred territory and can lean on his cardio across three rounds, where staying upright gets harder for Petrino the longer it goes.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Spivac can complete his level changes or Petrino stuffs them and resets to open space.
- Early striking: if it stays standing, watch whether Petrino's power and output start stacking up on Spivac.
- Late rounds: track Petrino's takedown defense and pace in round three as Spivac's cardio becomes more relevant.