← UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Navajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08-01
68.1%
Model
73.3%
Market
1.31
Odds
-5.2
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 20 UFC fightsestablished · 20 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P51
P92
Volume
P55
P87
Striking Efficiency
P75
P71
Range Sniper
P69
P74
Kickboxing
P71
P26
Clinch Striking
P41
P81
Defensive Striking
P43
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P38
Wrestling
P51
P58
Pressure Wrestling
P43
P51
Top Control
P32
P2
Submission
P63
P67
Anti-Wrestling
P5
P67
Grappling Defense
P27
P69
Scrambler
P12
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P81
Power
P35
P44
Finisher
P29
P72
Damage Resistance
P93
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P28
Fast Starter
P68
P85
Pace
P32
P82
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P77
Versatility
P63
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
StirlingBlachowicz
6.15Landed / min3.56
2.53Absorbed / min3.02
53%Accuracy50%
59%Defense52%
0.48KD / 150.36
0.00KD abs / 150.06
Grappling / Wrestling
StirlingBlachowicz
0.96TD / 151.13
2.40TD att / 152.32
40%TD accuracy49%
70%TD defense67%
2:41Control / 152:19
0.00Sub att / 150.36
Targets
StirlingBlachowicz
Head52%|63%
Body34%|21%
Leg14%|16%
Position
StirlingBlachowicz
Distance78%|77%
Clinch6%|11%
Ground16%|12%
Ranking evolution Stirling Blachowicz
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling arrives unbeaten at 10-0, a perfect 5-0 in the UFC, with every recent fight building his finishing rate and his knockout power. His pressure and output in the striking department tilt his way, his conditioning holds up deep, and his defensive sharpness has been climbing. Last win came over the No. 26-ranked opponent.
Jan Blachowicz
Jan Blachowicz brings a long résumé at 29-11 overall and 12-8 in the UFC, with a recent win over the No. 8-ranked opponent and a loss to the No. 9. His ground control has been trending upward, and he carries a modest edge in getting the fight to the mat. He's been out 16.3 months.
Matchup Read
Blachowicz's push to drag this to the canvas meets Stirling's volume and pressure on the feet. If Blachowicz lands his entries and leans on his rising top game, he can slow the exchanges and keep Stirling off his rhythm. Left standing, Stirling's output and finishing power become the throughline, and his conditioning favors him if this grinds across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Blachowicz converts his level changes into real control time or gets stuffed and reset on the feet.
- Early striking: how much volume Stirling puts on him and whether his power shows early.
- Late rounds: who holds the sharper pace into round three if the finish doesn't come.
Key Uncertainty
Blachowicz has been out 16.3 months, a layoff beyond a year that clouds how sharp his timing and output will be from the opening exchanges.