← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08-29
76.2%
Model
83.2%
Market
1.16
Odds
-7.0
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
STRIKING
P3
Striking Initiative
P16
P3
Volume
P48
P11
Striking Efficiency
P47
P3
Range Sniper
P91
P2
Kickboxing
P61
P24
Clinch Striking
P29
P14
Defensive Striking
P25
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P81
Wrestling
P3
P97
Pressure Wrestling
P21
P84
Top Control
P14
P67
Submission
P1
P22
Anti-Wrestling
P90
P25
Grappling Defense
P85
P34
Scrambler
P40
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P17
Power
P89
P74
Finisher
P49
P55
Damage Resistance
P40
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P92
Fast Starter
P9
P73
Pace
P4
P49
Late Fighter
P81
GLOBAL
P19
Versatility
P7
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TsuruyaBorjas
1.98Landed / min3.49
2.28Absorbed / min5.74
46%Accuracy42%
42%Defense50%
0.00KD / 150.59
0.00KD abs / 150.40
Grappling / Wrestling
TsuruyaBorjas
3.60TD / 150.00
14.41TD att / 152.17
25%TD accuracy0%
50%TD defense81%
5:35Control / 150:47
0.45Sub att / 150.00
Targets
TsuruyaBorjas
Head91%|73%
Body6%|17%
Leg3%|10%
Position
TsuruyaBorjas
Distance56%|93%
Clinch3%|6%
Ground41%|1%
Ranking evolution Tsuruya Borjas
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rei Tsuruya
Rei Tsuruya comes in at 11-1 overall and 2-1 in the UFC, riding a one-fight win streak. His most consistent strengths are getting the fight to the mat and closing it out early, backed by finishing momentum across his recent bouts. He has held up well absorbing damage lately and hasn't been stopped in his recent outings.
Kevin Borjas
Kevin Borjas sits at 11-5 overall and 2-4 in the UFC, most recently beating the No. 35-ranked opponent. His standout trait here is takedown defense to keep exchanges upright, and his defense has been trending upward over his recent fights.
Matchup Read
Tsuruya carries the more active recent track record and the finishing threat, while Borjas owns the matchup-specific tool that most directly answers it: his takedown defense against Tsuruya's push to get the fight down. If Borjas keeps stuffing entries and forces a striking contest across three rounds, Tsuruya's mat-based finishing path narrows. If Tsuruya lands his takedowns, his ability to end fights before the scorecards becomes the central danger.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Tsuruya's level changes get him planted on top or Borjas stays upright on his sprawl.
- Finishing: how quickly Tsuruya looks to close once he does secure top position.
- Late rounds: whether Borjas keeps the fight standing deep into the third and drags it to the scorecards.