← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08-29
74.7%
Model
78.5%
Market
1.23
Odds
-3.8
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
STRIKING
P55
Striking Initiative
P79
P27
Volume
P78
P60
Striking Efficiency
P50
P21
Range Sniper
P60
P36
Kickboxing
P64
P25
Clinch Striking
P19
P65
Defensive Striking
P59
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P95
Wrestling
P34
P96
Pressure Wrestling
P50
P96
Top Control
P60
P65
Submission
P50
P55
Anti-Wrestling
P84
P72
Grappling Defense
P94
P29
Scrambler
P39
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P10
Power
P58
P12
Finisher
P28
P48
Damage Resistance
P99
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P89
Fast Starter
P38
P94
Pace
P56
P68
Late Fighter
P98
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P69
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NurmagomedovYadong
3.86Landed / min4.51
1.86Absorbed / min3.89
56%Accuracy44%
61%Defense56%
0.12KD / 150.51
0.24KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
NurmagomedovYadong
4.03TD / 150.87
8.65TD att / 152.11
47%TD accuracy41%
79%TD defense77%
5:49Control / 152:05
0.24Sub att / 150.22
Targets
NurmagomedovYadong
Head68%|61%
Body20%|19%
Leg11%|20%
Position
NurmagomedovYadong
Distance67%|86%
Clinch6%|6%
Ground27%|8%
Ranking evolution Nurmagomedov Yadong
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov pairs a strong top game and control once the fight hits the mat with the takedowns to put it there. His striking shows sound distance management and defensive discipline, backed by a 5 cm reach advantage and a durable chin. He enters 20-1 overall, 8-1 in the UFC, with his last loss coming to the No. 1-ranked opponent.
Song Yadong
Song Yadong brings recent finishing momentum and a live submission threat built up over his last stretch of fights. At 23-10 overall and 12-4 in the UFC, he's the more battle-tested of the two, with 3 wins in his last 5 and only 3 months since his last outing.
Matchup Read
Umar's push to get the fight down and grind from top position meets Song's recent submission threat, which makes every control attempt a two-way risk: the same mat time that lets Umar accumulate position gives Song chances to attack off his back. Standing, Umar's reach and defensive stand-up shape the range, but Song's finishing form keeps danger alive. Over five rounds, whoever dictates where the fight lives decides it.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Umar can hold top control cleanly or Song creates submission scrambles from underneath.
- Early striking: whether Umar uses his reach to keep range or Song closes distance to land with finishing intent.
- Late rounds: who's still imposing their phase deep into the championship rounds.