← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09-26
65.4%
Model
64.9%
Market
1.48
Odds
+0.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P61
Striking Initiative
P14
P29
Volume
P14
P67
Striking Efficiency
P25
P38
Range Sniper
P24
P38
Kickboxing
P40
P87
Clinch Striking
P41
P69
Defensive Striking
P70
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P88
Wrestling
P93
P68
Pressure Wrestling
P86
P70
Top Control
P89
P27
Submission
P49
P31
Anti-Wrestling
P93
P42
Grappling Defense
P95
P80
Scrambler
P74
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P94
Power
P49
P29
Finisher
P9
P84
Damage Resistance
P49
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P80
Fast Starter
P57
P75
Pace
P67
P47
Late Fighter
P75
GLOBAL
P91
Versatility
P92
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
JacksonSimon
2.90Landed / min3.03
1.37Absorbed / min3.95
54%Accuracy43%
59%Defense61%
1.26KD / 150.37
0.00KD abs / 150.30
Grappling / Wrestling
JacksonSimon
2.63TD / 153.96
4.31TD att / 1510.62
61%TD accuracy37%
67%TD defense78%
4:36Control / 154:31
0.32Sub att / 150.30
Targets
JacksonSimon
Head72%|70%
Body19%|16%
Leg9%|14%
Position
JacksonSimon
Distance61%|80%
Clinch23%|9%
Ground16%|12%
Ranking evolution Jackson Simon
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Montel Jackson
Montel Jackson fights as a long southpaw who carries a 15 cm reach and 10 cm height advantage here, and his frame feeds solid work at range, with cleaner distance management and stand-up defense. He also holds a slight edge in getting the fight to the mat when he wants it. He's 3 of his last 5 in the UFC.
Ricky Simon
Ricky Simon brings the deeper résumé at 22-7 overall and has fared better against higher-quality opposition, with recent form that's held steady rather than slipped. His striking output and ground control have both been trending upward lately, giving him rising threats on the feet and from top position.
Matchup Read
Jackson's length and distance control meet Simon's climbing striking volume and improving top game head-on. If Jackson keeps Simon at the end of his reach from the southpaw side, he dictates the range and can discourage entries. Simon's path runs through closing that gap, upping his output inside and using his growing ground control to pin Jackson and grind. Jackson's own takedown edge gives him a route to steer away from a prolonged scrap.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Jackson keeps Simon pinned at range or Simon forces his way into volume-heavy exchanges inside.
- Grappling: who initiates the takedowns, and whether Simon can convert entries into sustained top control.
- Across three rounds: whether Simon's rising output keeps compounding or Jackson's range work resets the distance each round.