← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09-26
67.2%
Model
61.6%
Market
1.56
Odds
+5.6
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P2
Striking Initiative
P51
P2
Volume
P41
P1
Striking Efficiency
P75
P6
Range Sniper
P60
P2
Kickboxing
P54
P15
Clinch Striking
P40
P37
Defensive Striking
P71
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P100
Wrestling
P80
P97
Pressure Wrestling
P79
P95
Top Control
P81
P75
Submission
P43
P82
Anti-Wrestling
P48
P21
Grappling Defense
P98
P98
Scrambler
P22
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P32
Power
P52
P49
Finisher
P9
P69
Damage Resistance
P76
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P99
Fast Starter
P79
P73
Pace
P79
P16
Late Fighter
P91
GLOBAL
P13
Versatility
P99
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
Jr.Barcelos
1.34Landed / min4.65
1.34Absorbed / min4.24
41%Accuracy52%
55%Defense61%
0.21KD / 150.38
0.00KD abs / 150.23
Grappling / Wrestling
Jr.Barcelos
6.76TD / 152.51
12.46TD att / 157.91
54%TD accuracy32%
33%TD defense88%
8:32Control / 153:42
0.85Sub att / 150.68
Targets
Jr.Barcelos
Head64%|73%
Body14%|14%
Leg22%|13%
Position
Jr.Barcelos
Distance67%|74%
Clinch1%|7%
Ground32%|19%
Ranking evolution Jr. Barcelos
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Raul Rosas Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr. rides a five-fight win streak with a 6-1 UFC mark, all five of his most recent Octagon wins in hand, including a victory over the No. 16-ranked opponent. His strength is heavy top control once the fight hits the mat, and his striking output has been climbing lately. He also owns finishing ability and carries a slight edge in range work and stand-up defense.
Raoni Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos brings a deep 22-5 record and an 11-4 UFC run, currently on a five-fight streak that includes a win over the No. 17-ranked opponent. His pressing, high-volume striking is his most consistent advantage here, and he's difficult to bring down, defending takedowns well to keep exchanges on the feet.
Matchup Read
The fight turns on Barcelos's takedown defense meeting Rosas's push to get it to the mat. If Barcelos keeps it standing, his pressure and volume dictate the terms, and Rosas's slight defensive edge at range is tested across five rounds. If Rosas lands his entries and imposes top control, the math flips and his finishing threat comes alive. Cage position early likely decides which game plays out.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Rosas can complete takedowns against Barcelos's defense, or gets stuffed and dragged into striking exchanges.
- Standing: if the fight stays on the feet, watch Barcelos's forward pressure and volume versus Rosas's range and stand-up defense.
- Late rounds: over a five-round fight, whether Barcelos's pace holds up or Rosas's finishing chances open up from top position.