← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09-26
50.2%
Model
57.4%
Market
1.68
Odds
-7.2
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P16
Striking Initiative
P10
P16
Volume
P30
P81
Striking Efficiency
P6
P63
Range Sniper
P48
P88
Kickboxing
P11
P26
Clinch Striking
P35
P12
Defensive Striking
P58
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P80
Wrestling
P38
P78
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P85
Top Control
P2
P95
Submission
P25
P50
Anti-Wrestling
P2
P41
Grappling Defense
P34
P25
Scrambler
P28
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P8
Power
P79
P93
Finisher
P58
P63
Damage Resistance
P50
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P85
Fast Starter
P46
P61
Pace
P1
P75
Late Fighter
P2
GLOBAL
P83
Versatility
P7
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VieiraBryczek
3.43Landed / min2.80
4.28Absorbed / min4.51
54%Accuracy38%
49%Defense55%
0.13KD / 150.36
0.26KD abs / 150.36
Grappling / Wrestling
VieiraBryczek
2.87TD / 150.36
12.93TD att / 150.36
22%TD accuracy100%
60%TD defense71%
4:36Control / 150:42
0.91Sub att / 150.36
Targets
VieiraBryczek
Head64%|61%
Body14%|29%
Leg22%|10%
Position
VieiraBryczek
Distance89%|77%
Clinch5%|9%
Ground6%|14%
Ranking evolution Vieira Bryczek
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rodolfo Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira's calling card is his top game: once he lands on top, his control and pressure are hard to deal with, and he carries enough of a finishing threat to end things before the scorecards. He sits at 6-5 in the UFC, 2 of his last 5, with his recent work against modest regional opposition.
Robert Bryczek
Robert Bryczek brings the clear advantage in getting the fight to the mat and a sturdy chin that has held up to damage recently, with no recent stoppage loss on his ledger. He owns an 18-7 overall record, a win over the No. 33-ranked opponent, and a 5 cm reach advantage.
Matchup Read
Bryczek's push to get it down runs straight into the problem of where it lands him: Vieira's top control is exactly what he'd be inviting. The central question is who dictates the grappling. If Bryczek scores takedowns but ends up underneath, he's in Vieira's world; if he keeps exchanges on his terms, his recent durability and reach help him weather Vieira's finishing attempts across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling exchanges: watch whether Bryczek's takedown entries put Vieira on his back or hand Vieira the top position he wants.
- Striking at range: whether Bryczek uses his 5 cm reach to keep distance and avoid tie-ups.
- Late rounds: whether Bryczek's chin holds up if Vieira threatens a finish as the fight wears on.