← UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Lucas Brennan vs Francis Marshall
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04-25
Lucas BrennanLow Data
52.7%
Model
19.9%
Market
4.82
Odds
+32.7
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P13
Volume
P41
Striking Efficiency
P1
Range Sniper
P14
Kickboxing
P18
Clinch Striking
P16
Defensive Striking
P34
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P68
Pressure Wrestling
P61
Top Control
P79
Submission
P74
Anti-Wrestling
P39
Grappling Defense
P60
Scrambler
P29
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P40
Finisher
P57
Damage Resistance
P61
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P77
Pace
P79
Late Fighter
P73
GLOBAL
Versatility
P10
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BrennanMarshall
—Landed / min2.38
—Absorbed / min3.79
—Accuracy27%
—Defense52%
—KD / 150.51
—KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
BrennanMarshall
—TD / 152.05
—TD att / 155.38
—TD accuracy38%
—TD defense67%
—Control / 154:19
—Sub att / 150.77
Targets
BrennanMarshall
Head—|83%
Body—|6%
Leg—|11%
Position
BrennanMarshall
Distance—|90%
Clinch—|4%
Ground—|6%
Ranking evolution Brennan Marshall
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Lucas Brennan
Lucas Brennan enters on a two-fight winning run with an 11-2 mark across all organizations, both his recent decision and loss coming against modest regional opposition. His most consistent asset is the ability to close a fight early rather than leaving it to the judges. He fights out of the southpaw stance.
Francis Marshall
Francis Marshall sits at 3-3 in the UFC and 9-3 overall, with two wins in his last five UFC appearances and a recent turnaround off just 1.8 months out. His finishing form has been trending upward across his recent fights. He fights orthodox.
Matchup Read
Brennan carries the more established threat of ending things before the scorecards, while Marshall's rising finishing form makes him more dangerous the longer he stays live. The orthodox-southpaw pairing reshapes the striking angles for both men. Neither profile points to a settled phase, so the read hinges on whether Brennan can force his early finishing window or Marshall can extend the fight into territory where his recent momentum has been building.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Brennan can create the openings to press for a finish while both adjust to the opposite-stance angles.
- As the fight develops: whether Marshall stays composed and turns his recent finishing form into a real threat if the early exchanges pass.
- Turnaround: whether the 1.8-month gap since Marshall's last outing shows in his sharpness.
Key Uncertainty
Brennan is making his UFC debut with no promotional history to draw on, so how his finishing ability holds up against this level of opposition remains untested.