← UFC Freedom 250
Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06-14
57.5%
Model
62.5%
Market
1.54
Odds
-5.0
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P39
Striking Initiative
P98
P50
Volume
P87
P56
Striking Efficiency
P74
P80
Range Sniper
P71
P34
Kickboxing
P38
P32
Clinch Striking
P10
P5
Defensive Striking
P89
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P44
Wrestling
P48
P31
Pressure Wrestling
P10
P33
Top Control
P23
P87
Submission
P19
P71
Anti-Wrestling
P19
P82
Grappling Defense
P63
P53
Scrambler
P80
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P75
Power
P100
P86
Finisher
P81
P93
Damage Resistance
P15
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P86
Fast Starter
P90
P21
Pace
P76
P67
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P52
Versatility
P64
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LopesGarcia
4.00Landed / min4.84
4.58Absorbed / min1.87
48%Accuracy47%
46%Defense63%
0.69KD / 151.99
0.00KD abs / 151.24
Grappling / Wrestling
LopesGarcia
0.96TD / 150.99
1.92TD att / 151.74
50%TD accuracy57%
74%TD defense79%
1:45Control / 152:34
1.10Sub att / 150.50
Targets
LopesGarcia
Head71%|76%
Body12%|16%
Leg16%|8%
Position
LopesGarcia
Distance69%|64%
Clinch8%|4%
Ground23%|32%
Ranking evolution Lopes Garcia
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Diego Lopes
Diego Lopes brings serious finishing danger once the fight hits the mat, where his submission threat from top or in scrambles becomes the central concern for any opponent. His 27-8 overall mark includes a win over the No. 14-ranked opponent, with his only recent setback coming against the No. 1-ranked opponent.
Steve Garcia
Steve Garcia rides a 7-fight win streak and a perfect 5/5 across his last five UFC outings, with his striking volume and output climbing of late. He fights with a slight edge in range control and stand-up defense, a durable chin, and an 8 cm reach advantage from the southpaw side.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Garcia's rising volume, longer frame, and sharper range management, while the ground is where Lopes's finishing threat takes over. The crossed stances and 8 cm reach gap shape the striking exchanges, giving Garcia room to work from distance. Lopes's path runs through closing that space and dragging the fight to the mat, where his submission danger outweighs anything standing. Garcia's chin and defense raise the cost of every entry Lopes attempts.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Garcia can use his reach and southpaw angles to keep Lopes at the end of his punches.
- Grappling: whether Lopes can close distance and get the fight down, where his submission threat becomes live.
- Across three rounds: whether Garcia's climbing output keeps piling up or Lopes forces repeated mat exchanges.