← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
68.9%
Model
57.5%
Market
1.68
Odds
+11.4
Edge (pp)
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P42
Striking Initiative
P78
P10
Volume
P69
P18
Striking Efficiency
P63
P6
Range Sniper
P60
P6
Kickboxing
P63
P52
Clinch Striking
P22
P4
Defensive Striking
P34
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P94
Wrestling
P91
P93
Pressure Wrestling
P76
P100
Top Control
P84
P92
Submission
P64
P55
Anti-Wrestling
P43
P42
Grappling Defense
P35
P32
Scrambler
P27
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P20
Power
P83
P75
Finisher
P73
P37
Damage Resistance
P70
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P79
Fast Starter
P69
P97
Pace
P92
P85
Late Fighter
P12
GLOBAL
P35
Versatility
P77
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DawsonRebecki
3.35Landed / min5.40
2.24Absorbed / min4.83
52%Accuracy47%
45%Defense54%
0.11KD / 150.70
0.21KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
DawsonRebecki
3.96TD / 153.15
9.75TD att / 155.96
41%TD accuracy53%
60%TD defense50%
10:10Control / 154:11
1.07Sub att / 150.35
Targets
DawsonRebecki
Head71%|68%
Body16%|17%
Leg13%|15%
Position
DawsonRebecki
Distance51%|80%
Clinch9%|5%
Ground40%|15%
Ranking evolution Dawson Rebecki
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson's game runs through his grappling: strong top control once the fight hits the mat, and the ability to scramble back to his feet when he ends up underneath. He carries a reliable gas tank over three rounds and owns a 15 cm reach advantage. Recently beat the No. 16-ranked opponent, with a UFC record of 11-2.
Mateusz Rebecki
Mateusz Rebecki brings a bit more volume and forward pressure on the feet, and his chin has held up well recently, with no exposure to a knockout or submission loss. Sitting at 4-3 in the UFC and 21-4 overall, his last win came against the No. 37-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
The ground tilts toward Dawson, where his top control and ability to climb back up give him the terms of any grappling exchange. On the feet, Rebecki's pressure and pace are the counterweight, and his recent durability means Dawson's offense may not find a quick finish. Dawson's reach shapes the distance early; if he closes to clinch and change levels, his cardio becomes a factor as the three rounds wear on.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Dawson can convert entries into sustained top control, or Rebecki works back to his feet
- Early striking: whether Rebecki's pressure closes the 15 cm reach gap and keeps Dawson from dictating range
- Late rounds: whether Rebecki's pace holds as Dawson's gas tank asserts itself across three rounds