← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Alexander Volkov
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
67.7%
Model
39.5%
Market
2.44
Odds
+28.2
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P97
P94
Volume
P91
P89
Striking Efficiency
P98
P85
Range Sniper
P86
P83
Kickboxing
P96
P2
Clinch Striking
P45
P74
Defensive Striking
P60
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P30
Wrestling
P39
P6
Pressure Wrestling
P5
P38
Top Control
P14
P19
Submission
P39
P41
Anti-Wrestling
P24
P81
Grappling Defense
P48
P6
Scrambler
P40
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P81
Power
P59
P39
Finisher
P61
P95
Damage Resistance
P83
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P65
Fast Starter
P96
P54
Pace
P40
P83
Late Fighter
P12
GLOBAL
P78
Versatility
P86
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AcostaVolkov
5.37Landed / min5.03
3.36Absorbed / min3.02
49%Accuracy57%
57%Defense54%
0.68KD / 150.26
0.00KD abs / 150.13
Grappling / Wrestling
AcostaVolkov
0.46TD / 150.65
0.80TD att / 150.97
57%TD accuracy67%
73%TD defense69%
1:35Control / 151:29
0.11Sub att / 150.13
Targets
AcostaVolkov
Head72%|61%
Body15%|21%
Leg13%|18%
Position
AcostaVolkov
Distance87%|83%
Clinch3%|9%
Ground9%|8%
Ranking evolution Acosta Volkov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Cortes Acosta arrives on a 3-fight win streak with rising striking output and real finishing power lately, having stopped opponents and climbed to a No. 14-ranked scalp. His recent form has held steady without any dip, and he holds a slight cardio edge for sustaining pace deep into three rounds.
Alexander Volkov
Volkov carries the deeper résumé at 39-11 overall and 13-5 in the UFC, with a recent win over a No. 6-ranked opponent. He owns the physical frame here, standing 8 cm taller, and his defensive work has been trending upward over his recent outings.
Matchup Read
Volkov brings the longer, more tested body of work, but the sharper matchup-specific tools sit with Cortes Acosta's recent power and climbing volume. The fight likely lives at range, where Volkov's frame dictates space and Cortes Acosta tries to close and land heavy. If Cortes Acosta's pressure and output force exchanges inside Volkov's reach, his finishing threat grows; if Volkov manages distance behind his length, the fight stretches toward the later rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Cortes Acosta can close the gap and land clean inside Volkov's reach, or gets kept at the end of jabs.
- Distance: how much Volkov uses his length and height to control range and keep exchanges on his terms.
- Late rounds: whether the pace holds and Cortes Acosta's cardio advantage starts to show as the third round approaches.