← UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Joel Alvarez vs Chidi Njokuani
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08-15
58.5%
Model
71.4%
Market
1.35
Odds
-12.8
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P95
Striking Initiative
P90
P79
Volume
P73
P96
Striking Efficiency
P95
P72
Range Sniper
P86
P82
Kickboxing
P91
P70
Clinch Striking
P98
P54
Defensive Striking
P66
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P9
Wrestling
P1
P19
Pressure Wrestling
P26
P26
Top Control
P31
P99
Submission
P12
P32
Anti-Wrestling
P4
P20
Grappling Defense
P36
P50
Scrambler
P17
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P20
Power
P74
P97
Finisher
P45
P74
Damage Resistance
P54
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P42
Fast Starter
P73
P31
Pace
P41
P29
Late Fighter
P71
GLOBAL
P81
Versatility
P29
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AlvarezNjokuani
4.53Landed / min5.67
3.03Absorbed / min3.90
55%Accuracy60%
54%Defense57%
0.18KD / 150.53
0.00KD abs / 150.18
Grappling / Wrestling
AlvarezNjokuani
0.18TD / 150.00
0.53TD att / 151.07
33%TD accuracy0%
46%TD defense75%
1:37Control / 152:20
1.06Sub att / 150.18
Targets
AlvarezNjokuani
Head69%|37%
Body20%|40%
Leg11%|22%
Position
AlvarezNjokuani
Distance74%|64%
Clinch11%|28%
Ground14%|8%
Ranking evolution Alvarez Njokuani
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Joel Alvarez
Joel Alvarez carries real finishing threat, with submissions his most dangerous weapon once the fight hits the mat, and the ability to end things before the scorecards. His ground control has been trending upward lately, alongside tightening defense. Coming off a win over the No. 24-ranked opponent, he sits 8-3 in the UFC and 23-4 overall.
Chidi Njokuani
Chidi Njokuani's main strength here is getting the fight to the mat, and he holds an 8 cm reach advantage to work behind at range. His gas tank and ability to hold pace deep into the fight stand out. He's 5-5 in the UFC and 25-12 across all organizations, with a 5.7-month layoff since his last outing.
Matchup Read
Njokuani's push to get the fight down runs straight into Alvarez's submission threat off his back, the central tension of this matchup. Taking Alvarez down invites danger rather than safety, so how Njokuani manages position once he's there decides a lot. If Njokuani keeps it at range behind his reach and avoids tangling on the mat, his superior cardio grows in value as three rounds wear on.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Njokuani's takedowns lead to control or walk him into Alvarez's submission attempts off the floor.
- Early finishing: Alvarez's threat to close the fight before the judges, against Njokuani's edge if it goes long.
- Late rounds: whether Njokuani's pace and distance management hold up across the full three rounds.