← UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09-19
57.5%
Model
69.7%
Market
1.38
Odds
-12.2
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
P80
Striking Initiative
P37
P62
Volume
P34
P87
Striking Efficiency
P88
P76
Range Sniper
P78
P26
Kickboxing
P67
P66
Clinch Striking
P54
P39
Defensive Striking
P22
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P27
Wrestling
P18
P90
Pressure Wrestling
P22
P75
Top Control
P61
P23
Submission
P50
P53
Anti-Wrestling
P73
P70
Grappling Defense
P96
P33
Scrambler
P57
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P77
P86
Finisher
P75
P35
Damage Resistance
P16
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P68
Fast Starter
P3
P91
Pace
P26
—
Late Fighter
P61
GLOBAL
P57
Versatility
P74
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BaraniewskiMenifield
11.29Landed / min3.84
8.91Absorbed / min4.10
57%Accuracy52%
54%Defense51%
17.82KD / 150.56
4.46KD abs / 150.56
Grappling / Wrestling
BaraniewskiMenifield
0.00TD / 150.56
8.91TD att / 151.56
0%TD accuracy36%
100%TD defense88%
2:23Control / 153:27
0.00Sub att / 150.22
Targets
BaraniewskiMenifield
Head76%|80%
Body11%|11%
Leg13%|9%
Position
BaraniewskiMenifield
Distance32%|77%
Clinch16%|14%
Ground53%|9%
Ranking evolution Baraniewski Menifield
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Iwo Baraniewski
Iwo Baraniewski comes in unbeaten at 10-0, 3-0 in the UFC on a 10-fight run. His game is built on high-volume, forward-pressing striking with a knack for ending fights before the judges. His ground control and defensive habits have both been trending upward recently.
Alonzo Menifield
Alonzo Menifield is the far more tested fighter at 16-6, with a win over the No. 23-ranked opponent and a loss to the No. 12-ranked. His assets here are stand-up defense and distance management, backed by a durable chin that has held up to damage recently.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Baraniewski's pressure and output, but Menifield's distance management and 8 cm of reach give him the tools to keep that volume at arm's length. The central tension: can Baraniewski close the gap and impose his pace, or does Menifield's range control and sturdy chin blunt the pressure and drag the fight into longer exchanges where his durability becomes the deciding factor over three rounds?
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Baraniewski can cross the reach gap and plant his volume inside, or eats jabs walking in.
- Durability test: how Menifield's chin holds against sustained pressure in the first two rounds.
- Late rounds: if the finish doesn't come, whether Menifield's range work stretches it toward the scorecards.