← UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10-17
60.3%
Model
52.6%
Market
1.83
Odds
+7.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
P62
Striking Initiative
P44
P56
Volume
P71
P81
Striking Efficiency
P7
P76
Range Sniper
P41
P83
Kickboxing
P16
P4
Clinch Striking
P10
P68
Defensive Striking
P83
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P65
Wrestling
P58
P48
Pressure Wrestling
P22
P73
Top Control
P24
P77
Submission
P9
P97
Anti-Wrestling
P41
P79
Grappling Defense
P64
P66
Scrambler
P50
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P88
Power
P91
P86
Finisher
P57
P65
Damage Resistance
P35
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P43
Fast Starter
P45
P45
Pace
P54
P23
Late Fighter
P41
GLOBAL
P92
Versatility
P18
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MalottBuckley
3.94Landed / min3.62
2.83Absorbed / min3.10
52%Accuracy36%
57%Defense59%
0.98KD / 150.68
0.00KD abs / 150.30
Grappling / Wrestling
MalottBuckley
1.57TD / 151.43
2.75TD att / 153.15
57%TD accuracy45%
73%TD defense70%
2:21Control / 151:39
0.59Sub att / 150.08
Targets
MalottBuckley
Head60%|62%
Body20%|28%
Leg20%|10%
Position
MalottBuckley
Distance84%|75%
Clinch2%|6%
Ground14%|19%
Ranking evolution Malott Buckley
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mike Malott
Mike Malott carries real finishing pop, with a submission threat off the mat and a knack for ending fights before the judges get involved. His striking output and top control have both been climbing lately, and he can scramble off his back to get upright. Riding a 4-fight win streak with a steady recent run.
Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley's edge sits in his gas tank, holding pace deep into a fight where others fade. The deeper résumé shows, with a win over a No. 4-ranked opponent and his last loss coming against the No. 8. He also owns an 8 cm reach advantage to work behind.
Matchup Read
Malott's ground finishing meets Buckley's cardio over five rounds, and that time frame cuts both ways. If Malott drags it to the mat, his submission threat and top pressure become the central danger early, and his ability to climb back to his feet limits any bottom trouble. If Buckley keeps it standing behind his reach and drags Malott into the championship rounds, his staying power over the distance grows in value.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Malott can close the 8 cm reach gap and get the fight to the mat, where his submission threat lives.
- Late rounds: if this reaches rounds four and five, watch whether Buckley's pace holds up while Malott's output stays high.
- Scrambles: how quickly Malott returns to his feet whenever Buckley tries to reverse position or stall from top.