← UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06-27
63.3%
Model
65.5%
Market
1.47
Odds
-2.2
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
Style Matchup
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P14
Striking Initiative
P88
P4
Volume
P89
P29
Striking Efficiency
P87
P10
Range Sniper
P84
P38
Kickboxing
P91
P55
Clinch Striking
P74
P33
Defensive Striking
P67
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P95
Wrestling
P10
P94
Pressure Wrestling
P21
P98
Top Control
P7
P86
Submission
P36
P81
Anti-Wrestling
P33
P33
Grappling Defense
P48
P84
Scrambler
P45
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P18
Power
P51
P33
Finisher
P27
P61
Damage Resistance
P70
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P95
Fast Starter
P5
P76
Pace
P41
P2
Late Fighter
P85
GLOBAL
P62
Versatility
P42
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AlmabayevJohnson
2.31Landed / min4.77
1.99Absorbed / min4.02
51%Accuracy50%
54%Defense56%
0.17KD / 150.34
0.00KD abs / 150.25
Grappling / Wrestling
AlmabayevJohnson
4.46TD / 150.51
10.41TD att / 153.04
43%TD accuracy17%
44%TD defense69%
6:59Control / 151:00
1.49Sub att / 150.34
Targets
AlmabayevJohnson
Head54%|50%
Body24%|29%
Leg22%|20%
Position
AlmabayevJohnson
Distance65%|81%
Clinch11%|14%
Ground24%|5%
Ranking evolution Almabayev Johnson
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Asu Almabayev
Almabayev's game runs through his wrestling: he changes levels well and holds position once he's on top, where his submission threat has been live recently. He's taken no recent damage he couldn't absorb, and his 23-3 overall mark with a 6-1 UFC run reflects consistent output.
Charles Johnson
Johnson brings the longer, rangier frame, with 13 cm of reach on Almabayev to work behind on the feet. His recent power has shown up in his hands, and he carries the stronger gas tank deep into the distance.
Matchup Read
On the feet, Johnson's reach and recent pop favor him at range, where he can keep this at kicking and jabbing distance. The floor flips it: Almabayev's level changes and top control bring his submission threat into play, and that's where Johnson's standup assets go quiet. The read is whether Almabayev can close the 13 cm gap and plant him, against a longer man who holds up better over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Johnson can use his length to keep Almabayev at range and tag him on entries.
- Grappling: how cleanly Almabayev closes distance, finishes takedowns, and transitions toward submissions on top.
- Late rounds: if the fight stays standing into round three, Johnson's cardio becomes more relevant.