AISpann brings the deeper résumé, but Pinto owns the sharper matchup-specific tools. The central tension is on…

66.2%

Model

70.2%

Market

1.37

Odds

-4.0

Edge (pp)

Mario Pinto

KO/TKO

66.2%33.8%

Ryan Spann

POWER STRIKER

Power

provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights

Style Matchup

SUBMISSION HUNTER

Submission

established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights

STRIKING

P40

Striking Initiative

P13

Volume

P28

P40

Striking Efficiency

P14

P12

Range Sniper

P38

Kickboxing

P16

P80

Clinch Striking

P30

P40

Defensive Striking

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P70

Wrestling

P46

P100

Pressure Wrestling

P37

P99

Top Control

P62

P34

Submission

P99

P69

Anti-Wrestling

P82

Grappling Defense

P44

P89

Scrambler

P88

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P89

Power

P60

P51

Finisher

P94

P36

Damage Resistance

P17

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P43

Fast Starter

P62

P75

Pace

P53

P22

Late Fighter

P35

GLOBAL

P65

Versatility

P10

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

PintoSpann

2.55Landed / min3.08

1.81Absorbed / min3.85

67%Accuracy39%

58%Defense44%

0.50KD / 150.91

0.50KD abs / 150.61

Grappling / Wrestling

PintoSpann

2.52TD / 151.22

9.56TD att / 153.49

26%TD accuracy35%

100%TD defense58%

7:03Control / 153:32

1.01Sub att / 151.52

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Pinto Spann

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Mario Pinto

Mario Pinto arrives unbeaten at 12-0, 3-0 in the UFC, riding a 12-fight win streak. His strengths cluster in the grappling: stout takedown defense to keep things upright when he wants, and heavy top control once he puts an opponent on the mat. He also carries a modest edge in range work and in soaking up damage.

Ryan Spann

Ryan Spann is the far more tested name at 23-10 overall and 10-6 in the UFC, on a two-fight run. His recent submission threat is a real factor off his back or in scrambles, and his cardio stands out, with a strong gas tank and the ability to push pace deep into the fight.

Matchup Read

Spann brings the deeper résumé, but Pinto owns the sharper matchup-specific tools. The central tension is on the mat: Pinto's top control is exactly where Spann's submission threat lives, so every minute Pinto spends grinding from top carries risk. If Pinto's takedown defense keeps it standing, his slight range edge matters. Over three rounds, Spann's superior gas tank grows in value the longer Pinto's unbeaten record is tested.

What to Watch

Grappling: whether Pinto's top control stays tight or opens the door to Spann's submission attempts from the bottom.
Late rounds: if the fight reaches the third, watch whether Spann's pace holds while Pinto's output fades.
Standing: whether Pinto can use his range to keep exchanges at distance rather than tangling in scrambles.

Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann