← UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08-01
89.7%
Model
80.1%
Market
1.20
Odds
+9.6
Edge (pp)
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P76
Striking Initiative
P7
P67
Volume
P66
P66
Striking Efficiency
P5
P66
Range Sniper
P31
P63
Kickboxing
P24
P27
Clinch Striking
P12
P41
Defensive Striking
P26
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P86
Wrestling
P6
P73
Pressure Wrestling
P8
P74
Top Control
P1
P61
Submission
P27
P70
Anti-Wrestling
P10
P34
Grappling Defense
P9
P63
Scrambler
P21
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P84
Power
P18
P74
Finisher
P54
P72
Damage Resistance
P61
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P65
Fast Starter
P0
P89
Pace
P7
P5
Late Fighter
P3
GLOBAL
P77
Versatility
P1
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RebeckiPrepolec
4.94Landed / min3.25
4.47Absorbed / min5.69
47%Accuracy34%
55%Defense49%
0.75KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RebeckiPrepolec
2.84TD / 150.00
5.83TD att / 152.15
49%TD accuracy0%
53%TD defense45%
3:56Control / 150:17
0.30Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RebeckiPrepolec
Head69%|61%
Body16%|25%
Leg15%|14%
Position
RebeckiPrepolec
Distance80%|97%
Clinch5%|3%
Ground15%|0%
Ranking evolution Rebecki Prepolec
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mateusz Rebecki
Rebecki brings strong top control once the fight hits the mat, and he's comfortable escaping bottom position to scramble back upright. His defensive game has been tightening recently, and his pressure and output give him a modest striking advantage. His 21-5 overall mark reflects quality wins, though his UFC run sits at 4-4 with only 1 of his last 5 going his way.
Kyle Prepolec
Prepolec owns the physical measurements here, with 10 cm of reach and 8 cm of height on Rebecki, giving him natural length to work behind. He carries an 18-10 record across all organizations but is 0-4 inside the UFC, and his recent results came against regional-level opposition.
Matchup Read
Rebecki's push to get the fight to the mat meets Prepolec's length, which is the central tension here. If Rebecki closes the gap and lands his takedowns, his top control and grinding pace become the story, and his ability to pop back up neutralizes any scrambles off his back. Prepolec's reach helps him keep the fight at range early, but giving up distance invites the exact grappling exchanges Rebecki wants over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Prepolec uses his length to keep Rebecki at the end of his punches or Rebecki pressures inside.
- Grappling: how quickly Rebecki converts entries into top position, and whether he holds control or lets Prepolec disengage.
- Scrambles: if Rebecki ends up underneath, watch how fast he works back to his feet.