← UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04-25
72.4%
Model
82.5%
Market
1.17
Odds
-10.1
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P19
Striking Initiative
P27
P14
Volume
P30
P4
Striking Efficiency
P42
P0
Range Sniper
P34
P8
Kickboxing
P47
P59
Clinch Striking
P11
P40
Defensive Striking
P19
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P79
Wrestling
P98
P48
Pressure Wrestling
P84
P56
Top Control
P86
P99
Submission
P58
P24
Anti-Wrestling
P90
P29
Grappling Defense
P47
P97
Scrambler
P89
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P8
Power
P23
P93
Finisher
P53
P38
Damage Resistance
P31
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P98
Fast Starter
P89
P63
Pace
P82
P8
Late Fighter
P17
GLOBAL
P21
Versatility
P75
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
FilhoDurden
1.66Landed / min3.45
1.26Absorbed / min4.16
41%Accuracy45%
52%Defense51%
0.00KD / 150.11
0.36KD abs / 150.46
Grappling / Wrestling
FilhoDurden
2.49TD / 154.10
4.63TD att / 157.86
54%TD accuracy52%
64%TD defense63%
4:55Control / 155:43
2.49Sub att / 150.57
Targets
FilhoDurden
Head54%|76%
Body27%|13%
Leg19%|12%
Position
FilhoDurden
Distance61%|85%
Clinch10%|4%
Ground29%|11%
Ranking evolution Filho Durden
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jafel Filho
Jafel Filho's game is built around his finishing ability, with real submission danger once the fight hits the mat and ground control that's been trending upward lately. He's shown solid durability in recent outings and hasn't been stopped recently. Comes in 17-4 overall, 3-2 in the UFC with a one-fight win streak, though his last win came against lower-ranked opposition.
Cody Durden
Cody Durden's strengths lean on cardio, holding his pace deep into the fight, along with a slight edge in striking volume and forward pressure. He's active, turning around in just 1.6 months, but carries a 6-8 UFC mark with only one win in his last 5, and his last victory came over lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
The fight splits along a clear line: on the mat, Filho's submission threat and improving top control make the ground his territory, while a longer standing battle feeds Durden's output and his ability to push the pace late. Filho's recent durability helps him weather Durden's volume long enough to look for entries. If Durden keeps it standing and drags the fight into deep water, his cardio becomes the deciding factor. The orthodox-southpaw mix reshapes the angles both men work from.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Filho can close distance and get the fight down, where his submission threat lives.
- Striking: whether Durden's volume and pressure keep Filho pinned to open space and off his entries.
- Late rounds: if the fight stays standing and prolonged, watch whether Durden's pace starts to tell.