← UFC Freedom 250
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06-14
80.4%
Model
85.1%
Market
1.13
Odds
-4.7
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P70
Striking Initiative
P79
P58
Volume
P72
P61
Striking Efficiency
P99
P73
Range Sniper
P98
P45
Kickboxing
P97
P8
Clinch Striking
P77
P84
Defensive Striking
P30
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P72
Wrestling
P14
P39
Pressure Wrestling
P29
P75
Top Control
P54
P83
Submission
P8
P45
Anti-Wrestling
P59
P80
Grappling Defense
P69
P21
Scrambler
P1
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P93
Power
P91
P91
Finisher
P72
P76
Damage Resistance
P66
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P74
Fast Starter
P76
P66
Pace
P15
P43
Late Fighter
P71
GLOBAL
P94
Versatility
P79
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TopuriaGaethje
4.81Landed / min6.48
3.83Absorbed / min7.05
48%Accuracy59%
64%Defense51%
1.25KD / 150.74
0.18KD abs / 150.25
Grappling / Wrestling
TopuriaGaethje
1.96TD / 150.33
3.20TD att / 150.82
61%TD accuracy40%
94%TD defense74%
3:21Control / 150:58
1.07Sub att / 150.00
Targets
TopuriaGaethje
Head71%|65%
Body17%|11%
Leg12%|24%
Position
TopuriaGaethje
Distance79%|84%
Clinch3%|12%
Ground18%|3%
Ranking evolution Topuria Gaethje
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ilia Topuria
Topuria arrives undefeated across 17 fights and 9-0 in the UFC, riding finishing momentum built against top opposition, including a win over the No. 3-ranked man. His striking volume has been climbing, and his most consistent weapon in this matchup is his finishing threat once the fight hits the mat.
Justin Gaethje
Gaethje carries a 27-5 overall mark with a recent win over the No. 8-ranked opponent, his last loss coming to a No. 3-ranked man. His defensive work has tightened recently, and he holds a slight advantage in output and forward pressure on the feet. He stands 10 cm taller.
Matchup Read
Topuria's ground finishing threat meets Gaethje's pressure and output on the feet, and that collision likely decides it. If Topuria closes distance and brings this to the mat, his submission danger becomes the central concern. Gaethje's slight volume edge and tightened defense are built to keep it standing, where his height and forward pace matter. Over five rounds, whoever dictates whether the fight stays vertical sets the terms.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Gaethje can use his height and forward pressure to keep Topuria at range and working on the feet.
- Grappling: whether Topuria changes levels and threatens from top position, where his submission danger lives.
- Late rounds: how both hold pace deep into a five-round fight if neither finds an early finish.