← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
61.4%
Model
70.2%
Market
1.37
Odds
-8.7
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P64
Striking Initiative
P29
P64
Volume
P29
P77
Striking Efficiency
P40
P91
Range Sniper
P30
P64
Kickboxing
P45
P42
Clinch Striking
P13
P45
Defensive Striking
P25
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P30
Wrestling
P99
P48
Pressure Wrestling
P82
P15
Top Control
P85
P55
Submission
P57
P7
Anti-Wrestling
P85
P51
Grappling Defense
P38
P23
Scrambler
P88
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P86
Power
P24
P75
Finisher
P43
P24
Damage Resistance
P34
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P78
Fast Starter
P90
P29
Pace
P81
P5
Late Fighter
P11
GLOBAL
P54
Versatility
P72
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CostaDurden
4.06Landed / min3.33
3.81Absorbed / min3.89
50%Accuracy45%
53%Defense52%
0.95KD / 150.10
0.48KD abs / 150.41
Grappling / Wrestling
CostaDurden
0.95TD / 154.19
3.57TD att / 157.57
27%TD accuracy55%
84%TD defense59%
1:19Control / 155:40
0.48Sub att / 150.61
Targets
CostaDurden
Head61%|75%
Body19%|13%
Leg21%|13%
Position
CostaDurden
Distance74%|84%
Clinch9%|4%
Ground17%|11%
Ranking evolution Costa Durden
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Alessandro Costa
Alessandro Costa rides a two-fight win streak and brings the harder recent finishing form, with knockout power showing up in his last outings. His control once the fight hits the mat has been trending upward. He's 16-5 overall, 3 of his last 5 inside the UFC, and turns around quickly off just over a month out.
Cody Durden
Cody Durden's most reliable strength is his top game, controlling and grinding once the fight is on the mat, backed by a slight edge in getting it there. He holds up well under damage in recent fights and manages his pace over the distance. He last beat the No. 39-ranked opponent and stands 8 cm taller.
Matchup Read
Durden's push to drag this to the canvas meets Costa's recent knockout power and improving control on the mat. If Durden lands his entries and settles into top position, his grind and late-round pace tilt the grappling exchanges his way. Costa's route runs through keeping it standing long enough to let his power land. The orthodox-southpaw mismatch reshapes the striking angles either man must solve across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Durden can secure takedowns and hold top position, or Costa works back up and resets.
- Early striking: can Costa close the southpaw angle and land clean power before the fight hits the mat.
- Late rounds: if the fight grinds into round three, watch Durden's pace management against Costa's quick turnaround.