← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10-24
54.2%
Model
51.1%
Market
1.88
Odds
+3.1
Edge (pp)
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P50
Striking Initiative
P25
P19
Volume
P13
P29
Striking Efficiency
P7
P9
Range Sniper
P2
P13
Kickboxing
P2
P56
Clinch Striking
P29
P5
Defensive Striking
P36
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P91
Wrestling
P89
P92
Pressure Wrestling
P79
P99
Top Control
P99
P92
Submission
P14
P55
Anti-Wrestling
P86
P64
Grappling Defense
P77
P30
Scrambler
P90
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P23
Power
P8
P79
Finisher
P0
P31
Damage Resistance
P67
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P88
Fast Starter
P97
P97
Pace
P87
P79
Late Fighter
P85
GLOBAL
P46
Versatility
P38
Current fighter profiles · percentiles vs current established UFC fighters (8+ fights).
Striking
DawsonAliev
3.26Landed / min1.97
2.24Absorbed / min1.67
50%Accuracy42%
46%Defense56%
0.10KD / 150.00
0.29KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
DawsonAliev
3.68TD / 153.50
9.11TD att / 156.00
40%TD accuracy58%
70%TD defense80%
9:53Control / 158:48
1.36Sub att / 150.50
Targets
DawsonAliev
Head69%|82%
Body18%|14%
Leg13%|4%
Position
DawsonAliev
Distance52%|63%
Clinch10%|8%
Ground38%|30%
Ranking evolution Dawson Aliev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson's calling card is his grappling, with a serious submission threat once the fight hits the mat and a knack for ending fights before the judges weigh in. He adds forward striking pressure and useful volume on the feet, and he's tested himself against a higher grade of opposition.
Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev arrives 4-0 in the UFC and 12-0 across all organizations on a 12-fight win streak. He's shown solid durability and damage absorption lately, avoiding any recent stoppage loss, and carries a slight advantage in getting the fight to the mat.
Matchup Read
On the ground the picture splits: Aliev owns a slight edge in getting it down, but once there Dawson's submission threat becomes the central danger, so a takedown could cut either way. Standing, Dawson's pressure and volume meet an opponent whose recent durability has held up. Dawson carries the finishing equity across phases; Aliev's unbeaten record and chin point toward surviving deep and leaning on the scorecards.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Aliev's takedowns put him in Dawson's submission range or he keeps top position safe.
- Striking: whether Dawson's forward pressure and volume start to accumulate against Aliev's durability.
- Late rounds: whether Aliev's clean record holds up as Dawson keeps hunting the finish.