← UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09-05
59.5%
Model
66.8%
Market
1.44
Odds
-7.3
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
STRIKING
P99
Striking Initiative
P76
P92
Volume
P42
P98
Striking Efficiency
P59
P90
Range Sniper
P39
P97
Kickboxing
P6
P56
Clinch Striking
P59
P96
Defensive Striking
P8
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P28
Wrestling
P68
P8
Pressure Wrestling
P75
P58
Top Control
P80
P17
Submission
P24
P41
Anti-Wrestling
P47
P63
Grappling Defense
P17
P30
Scrambler
P68
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P96
Power
P87
P66
Finisher
P53
P55
Damage Resistance
P68
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P94
Fast Starter
P80
P75
Pace
P85
P21
Late Fighter
P22
GLOBAL
P80
Versatility
P41
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DonchenkoSoriano
8.07Landed / min4.60
2.80Absorbed / min3.44
62%Accuracy56%
70%Defense47%
2.30KD / 150.84
0.00KD abs / 150.14
Grappling / Wrestling
DonchenkoSoriano
0.58TD / 151.83
1.73TD att / 153.80
33%TD accuracy48%
75%TD defense49%
2:13Control / 154:36
0.00Sub att / 150.14
Targets
DonchenkoSoriano
Head43%|79%
Body26%|19%
Leg31%|2%
Position
DonchenkoSoriano
Distance79%|45%
Clinch11%|9%
Ground10%|47%
Ranking evolution Donchenko Soriano
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Daniil Donchenko
Donchenko comes in 3-0 in the UFC and riding a three-fight win streak, built on high-volume, pressuring striking. He carries real finishing momentum and recent knockout power, backs that with solid distance control and stand-up defense, and has shown he can defend takedowns to keep the fight on his feet.
Punahele Soriano
Soriano owns the deeper UFC track record at 7-4 and has won four straight across all organizations, taking four of his last five in the Octagon. His defensive work has been trending upward lately, and he brings a slight advantage in level-changing to drag the fight to the mat.
Matchup Read
Soriano brings the longer Octagon résumé and sharper matchup tool in his level changes, but Donchenko owns the more dangerous standing game. The fight likely hinges on whether Soriano can close the southpaw-orthodox distance and get it to the mat, since Donchenko's takedown defense and finishing power reward every exchange that stays upright. Soriano's recent defensive tightening matters most if he's forced to trade at range.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Donchenko's pressure and volume force Soriano into standing exchanges rather than clean entries.
- Grappling: how often Soriano changes levels and whether Donchenko's sprawl keeps it standing.
- Late rounds: whether Soriano's tightened defense holds up over three rounds against sustained output.